Sector Rotation Strategy (SRS)

Strategy Overview

Milwaukee Company’s Sector Rotation Strategy (SRS) targets the main sectors of the U.S. stock market via a diversified portfolio of exchange traded funds (ETFs).  It is designed to generate superior risk-adjusted returns by capitalizing on the well-accepted principles of momentum and mean reversion (see side bar).

 

  • The momentum component increases allocations to sector ETFs that have recently outperformed the overall market. 

 

  • The mean reversion component over-weights sectors that exhibit strong fundamentals but have underperformed over a longer timeframe. 

SRS uses The Milwaukee Company Risk Index (MCRI), which provides an estimate of the probability of a stock market correction in the near-term, to manage risk and boost returns (see side bar).  SRS allocates 100% to equities when MCRI indicates lower- than-normal market risk, and 100% to bonds when MCRI indicates equity market risk is elevated.

Milwaukee Company Risk Index (MCRI)

MCRI.jpg

The shaded areas below highlight times when MCRI signaled elevated equity market risk since 1994.

Components

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  • Market-Weighted Sector Funds

The SRS fund universe is comprised of eleven market-weighted sector funds that are meant to cover all sectors included in the S&P 500.

 

  • Milwaukee Company Risk Index (MCRI)

MCRI seeks to measure the expected risk of the S&P 500 in the near term using a probit regression model based on various economic and market indicators.

 

  • Momentum

Market trends have a tendency to continue over the short term. Investing in market sectors that have outperformed over the short term creates the potential for above-market returns.

  • Mean Reversion

Academic research suggests investing in the sectors that have underperformed for a long period of time and possess good fundamentals tends to yield greater returns as the business cycle progresses.

The Milwaukee Company℠ is a tradename of Estate Counselors, LLC. The information provided herein is believed to be correct and has been obtained from sources that we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that this information is accurate or complete.  All expressions of opinion reflect our judgment at the present time, but are subject to change. Nothing found herein is intended to be a substitute for personal investment advice. The investments discussed herein are risky in nature and involve a substantial risk of loss, and we do not in any way warrant or guarantee the results you will experience.